BTC Wealth Report – Issue 12

👋 Welcome to BTC Wealth — Issue 12

The stock market just hit an all-time high.
Bitcoin ETFs are inhaling coins — 20,000 BTC added this week alone.
And we’ve got a new wave of Bitcoin treasury companies coming online.

Including Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap Financial, which just launched and already purchased 4,932 BTC.

So with all this bullish activity…

Why is Bitcoin still stuck around $108,000?

That’s the focus this week.

🤔 “Someone Must Be Selling”

On X BitcoinCam posed the question on everyone’s mind

Billionaire hedge fund manager Clifford Assness, provided a snarky but nevertheless accurate answer to the question posed above.

“Somebody else is selling it.”

Accurate as it is, it’s also very unsatisfactory. So let’s see if we can go a little deeper.

🧠 The OG Bitcoiners Recycling Theory.

If Bitcoin Treasury Companies are buying thousands of BTC —
why isn’t the price ripping higher?

Let’s start with a simpler question:
Where’s the capital coming from?

📡 All signs point to a familiar source: OG Bitcoiners.

These are the natural buyers of Bitcoin Treasury Companies:

• They deeply believe in Bitcoin

• They have the capital (large Bitcoin stacks)

• And — importantly — they have a high risk appetite
  (remember, Bitcoin was a fringe economic experiment in it’s early years)

📉 Why They’re Selling Bitcoin For Stocks

Holding Bitcoin today is relatively low risk.
And while the upside is still attractive, it’s not the 1000x asymmetric bet it once was.

At this stage, 40-60% annual compounding seems like the more realistic scenario.
A killer return — but not enough for the original moon chasers.

So what are those early adopters doing now?

They’re recycling capital — selling some BTC to buy into equity.

Because today’s Bitcoin Treasury Companies offer what Bitcoin did a decade ago:
High risk, high volatility, massive upside.

For risk loving bitcoiners, this is the next big bet.

📊 The On-Chain Evidence

Just two months ago River demonstrated that this isn’t just a theory. You can see it on the blockchain.

In May, River published on-chain data showing exactly this behavior:
Coins are moving from individuals → businesses.

The anecdotal evidence points this way too.

OG Bitcoiner Adam Back is everywhere in the BTC Treasury ecosystem. It’s hard to find a Treasury company he isn’t invested in.

🤔What does this mean for Bitcoin?

When Bitcoiners sell BTC to buy Treasury Companies,
they sell spot BTC, but the capital doesn’t immediately lead to new BTC buying.

The share price of the company rises — not Bitcoin itself.

But give it time...

📈The BTC Treasury J-Curve

Here’s how this plays out:

1. BTC gets sold → price stalls

2. Shares get bought → market cap inflates

3. Companies raise capital at higher equity prices

4. Capital is deployed into buying more BTC

5. Eventually, non-Bitcoin native capital (bondholders, equity funds, institutions) joins the party

These companies use all tools — ATMs, convertibles, preferred stock — to buy more BTC.

And in time, the buying pressure from Treasury Companies far exceeds the original selling from Bitcoiners.

That’s the J-Curve in action.

A short term head wind —
but it’s very bullish in the long run.

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🧊 The ETF Flows: A Different Animal

ETFs are structurally different.

Bitcoiners aren’t selling coins to buy ETFs (at least, not at scale).
There’s no financial upside for them to do that.
So ETF buying is mostly additive.

But there’s a wrinkle…

🔁 The Futures Carry Trade

Bitcoin futures often trade at a premium to spot (currently 6%).
So hedge funds arbitrage the gap:

1. Buy spot BTC via ETFs

2. Short futures

3. Lock in the yield

This explains some of the ETF demand — but not most of it.

The bulk of long-term flows are coming from allocators who actually want Bitcoin exposure.

The bottom line:

📊 Flows Update: Inflows continue

Speaking of which, this was a strong week of ETF flows - and for the first time in months, all the majors showed net buying

• BlackRock (IBIT): +12358 BTC

• Fidelity (FBTC): +4751 BTC

• ARK (ARKB): +2501 BTC

🟢 Total Net Flows: +20689

I’m watching the flows closely because it’s a good measure of new demand for Bitcoin.

This was a good week.

💬 Final Thoughts

ETF inflows are a clear indicator of bullish sentiment — they reflect net new demand for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Treasury Companies, on the other hand, are more nuanced.
Much of the capital flowing into them today is being recycled — from Bitcoin holders into equity.

In the short term, that’s a headwind.
Bitcoin is being sold to fund share purchases, but the buying doesn’t immediately hit the spot market.

Over time, though, these vehicles become powerful magnets for non-native capital:
Institutions, bondholders, equity funds — investors who wouldn’t otherwise touch BTC directly.

Over time they’re creating more structural demand. More persistent buying.
Just not all at once.

This is the Bitcoin long game — and it’s very bullish.
We just need a little patience.

That’s your BTC Wealth Report this week.

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— Thomas Fahrer