BTC Wealth Report – Issue 01

Intro / Editor’s Note

Welcome to the first edition of BTC Wealth — a data-first look at where capital is flowing in Bitcoin, and what’s unfolding across the Bitcoin ecosystem.

This newsletter is built for investors, hodlers, and anyone trying to understand Bitcoin through the lens of flows, market structure, and the narratives that matter.

And we’re kicking things off with a bang:

• ETF flows have turned negative on the year

• The bond market is punching back against tariffs

• Bitcoin is caught in the middle

Let’s get into it.

🟠 Bitcoin ETF Tracker: A Slow Start to 2025

Bitcoin ETFs sold 9,042 BTC last week, continuing a trend that’s been in place since early February.

After an explosive start in January, flows have cooled sharply. As of now, the U.S. spot ETFs have recorded net outflows of 6,100 BTC year-to-date.

That’s a surprise for many.
These ETFs absorbed 509,000 BTC in 2024, and consensus expectations assumed that 2025 would be even stronger - at least in dollar terms.

There are structural reasons for that expectation:

• Longer diligence cycles mean many institutions were still onboarding in Q1

• Advisory platforms, model portfolios, and wirehouse access were expected to ramp

• Macro conditions (rate cuts, Trump pump) were supposed to be supportive

But the macro hasn’t played along.

The Bitcoin ETF bid isn’t gone. But for now, it’s muted — and waiting for better macro conditions.

 🌐 Macro Watch

🧭 The Bond Market Is Fighting Back

Trump’s renewed tariff push has a problem —
It’s the bond market.

The administration announced a sweeping escalation in trade restrictions this month: a 10% universal tariff and broader measures aimed at Chinese imports. Whether the goal is to raise revenue, reshore supply chains, or just shake the box to screw China — no one’s entirely sure.

But one thing is certain:
Trump has a yield problem.

📈 Within days, the 10-year Treasury yield spiked from under 4% to 4.5% — its fastest move in months.

Why?

Well, a few theories:

• Japanese hedge funds are unwinding carry trades, forced out by rate volatility

• China may be dumping Treasuries as a form of financial retaliation

• Markets are pricing in higher inflation and policy uncertainty

Any way you slice it, the implications are serious.

The Treasury is staring down $9 trillion in maturing debt in 2025. Rolling that over at higher yields could add hundreds of billions in additional interest expense — we’re still trying to lower the deficit, right?

And here’s the irony: while the motives behind the tariffs are murky, the administration has been crystal clear about one thing — they want lower interest rates.

Not just to reduce debt costs — but because the 10Y yield flows into everything from mortgage rates to credit spreads. Higher yields tighten financial conditions across the board.

Trump’s trade gambit was supposed to pressure Beijing.
Instead, it’s the bond market that’s pressuring Trump.

Yields are rising. Refinancing costs are climbing. And the administration may soon be forced to pivot — make a deal, call it a victory and move on.

There’s no doubt Bitcoin’s been caught in the crossfire so far this year — trading lower with the broader risk complex. But that may not last.

All it takes is one headline:
“Trump and Xi Agree to Trade deal.”

He’s a dealmaker, right?
Let’s see the deal.

🔥 In Case You Missed It…

News Roundup

• Florida House Committee passes Bitcoin Reserve Bill

  → Arizona is leading the race. Track the progress of all the bills here 

• Luke Gromen made a series of specific macro predictions, that played out in an eerily accurate manner.

• Ray Dalio says the world isn’t facing a typical recession. “We have a breaking down of the monetary order”

• China is suspending exports of certain rare earth minerals to prevent them reaching American companies

• Bitcoin dominance aka Bitcoin’s percentage of the total crypto asset class continues to rip upwards.

That’s your BTC Wealth Report.

Thanks for reading.

- Thomas Fahrer